The survey asked respondents who they would support in a 2024 presidential matchup between Trump and Biden. Overall, the two are tied with 43 percent support each, even among registered voters. However, Trump takes the edge among independents, leading his likely 2024 opponent by six points, or 38 percent to Biden’s 32 percent. Six percent of independents remain unsure.

As is consistent with a previous survey, more independents, 38 percent to Biden’s 26 percent, believe Trump is more likely to win the 2024 presidential election, regardless of their personal preference. All those across the board hold this sentiment as well, as 42 percent said they believe Trump would win, compared to 36 percent who said the same of Biden.

The survey was taken December 16-18, 2023, among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. Notably, it was taken after the release of the Colorado Supreme Court’s controversial ruling, which essentially said that Trump is disqualified from appearing on the state’s ballot.

“The court found by clear and convincing evidence that President Trump engaged in insurrection as those terms are used in Section Three” of the Fourteenth Amendment, the ruling, which the Trump campaign is appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court, reads in part.